Customizable cheat sheets are on the way, but here are our rankings and some explanation behind the order. Enjoy.
1) Carson Palmer - Right, right. This is blasphemy. How can the Golden One not be your top ranked quarterback? Blah blah blah. Here are the facts: Peyton Manning has lead fantasy quarterback scoring exactly one time in his nine year career. Palmer has lead fantasy quarterback scoring once in his three year career. And, oh yeah, he outpaced Manning that season. Last year started slowly as he recovered from the greusome leg injury, and with everything going well so far this summer, there’s no reason he can’t hit over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns again this season.
2) Peyton Manning - He finally got over the hump and lead all fantasy quarterback scoring. It was the first time he accomplished this, and it wouldn’t have happened had Donovan McNabb stayed healthy or Drew Brees not sucked in his last couple games. But that’s ok. I’m not bitter. Now, I didn’t actually see how the Colts did in the playoffs. But I have to assume they exited in the second round. Aw, those lovable Colts.
3) Drew Brees - Was it a fluke season for Brees? Until moving to the bayou, Brees was always considered a top tier backup fantasy quarterback. Suddenly, Brees became as productive as any signal caller in the league. He teamed up with a couple rookies, Marques Colston and Reggie Bush, to get this done. Both of those guys are still around and there’s no reason to believe the former Boilermaker will fall too much. Yes, 2006 was a career year, but 3,800 yards and 25 touchdowns seems reasonable for this season.
4) Tom Brady - The Patriots decided to try a little experiment. What would happen if a franchise quarterback, a player coming off of a 4,100 yard 26 touchdown season, and one of the most efficient players in the league were given basically no talent around him? Well, completions stayed the same. Attempts stayed about the same. The completion percentage went down slightly. But there is one statistic that sticks out. Yards per attempt. Brady had been hovering around 7.8 for the previous two seasons, but that fell to 6.8 last year. The touchdown total of 24 was solid, but his 3,500 yards was his lowest total since 2001. The Patriots brought in Randy Moss, Donté Stallworth, and Wes Welker. That makes the New England receiving core about, oh, I dunno 27 times better than last season. Ideally for Billy Belichek, the Pats will rely on the run as much as possible, but the best laid plans of mice and men (Even men as perfect as Bill) go awry. Expect 3,800 yards and 25 touchdowns, but Brady will do it with much more inconsistency than Brees.
5) Marc Bulger - Bulger had quite the odd season. He started off with two terrible games, got things going, succeeded after Orlando Pace was injured at first, then struggled, then finished the season strong. Oh, and he was sacked a ton despite the Rams often using max protection. Oh, and he finished with 4,300 yards and 24 touchdowns. The main players are still in town this season, so I don’t think those numbers will be too much different. But with Bulger’s injury history, he remains a high risk/high reward pick.
6) Donovan McNabb - Talking about high risk/high reward players, McNabb is the ultimate. The Eagles tend to throw, throw, throw, throw, run, and then throw some more. The biggest problem is that three of the last five years, McNabb hasn’t made it to fantasy playoff time before suffering a major injury. He is still being valued in the end of the second tier of quarterbacks, but if you do take McNabb, be prepared to take another quarterback rather soon. I wouldn’t want anyone to go into the season having McNabb and, say, Charlie Frye as a backup.
7) Matt Leinart - Two names: Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Those two ensure that Leinart has to be a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Last season, Leinart came in as a rookie and played, well, alright. The .91 TD to INT ratio isn’t the shiniest of statistics but there will be expectations of improvement this season. The problem, though, is the touchdown total. We have very little worry that Leinart will throw for over 3,500 yards. In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised to see him approach 4,000. Unfortunately, anything above 22 touchdowns would be a surprise.
8) Philip Rivers - I am higher on Rivers than Derek is. I have him at seven in my countdown while my misguided pal put him at nine. Basically, I think he will be the picture of consistency this year. Rivers had only three games without a touchdown pass last season and half of his games resulted in two or more scores. That puts Rivers just a rung below Manning and Palmer and ahead of Brady, Brees, and Bulger. On the other side of the coin, Rivers only had one three touchdown game and two 300 yard passing days. Essentially, you know what you’re getting from Rivers. He’s the Rudi Johnson of quarterbacks this season.
9) Jon Kitna - The opinions on Kitna seem to run the gamut entering the 2007 season. There are those who feel as though Calvin Johnson is the next coming of Randy Moss, which means Kitna would be a sure bet for 4,000 yards and 27 or 28 touchdowns. There are others who think Johnson will come along slowly, just like almost every other rookie wideout. Those people think Kitna is more of a 3,500 20 TD guy who will toss a ton of interceptions. We think that If you sit on a quarterback in your draft, taking Kitna late is a worthy risk.
10) Tony Romo - Some of y’all are being awfully hard on this guy. When a first year starter comes in and gets 19 touchdowns in 12 games, there’s usually a lot of hype surrounding the guy next year. And when said player gets to throw to a top wide out, fantasy freaks overvalue the player. But I guess a fumbled playoff snap changes some hearts. He is being valued anywhere from eighth to 15th, but taking him as a starter feels legitimate.
11) Vince Young - While I have Young sitting at 14 in my rankings, Derek has him towards the back of the top 10. The positives are clear. He’s an athletic quarterback who can make things happen with his feet. As a long proponent of Mike Vick as a legitimate fantasy starter, I have no problem believing a good running quarterback can be a top top player. Sadly, it would help if Young had ANYONE to throw the ball to. Even Vick had Alge Crumpler. Young has, well, let me check the depth chart. Ah yes, Brandon Jones, David Givens, and Ben Troupe. Maybe the running back position will help out in the receiving game? Oh, wait…LenDale White had only 14 receptions last year for 60 yards. Unless he can run for 75 yards a game, I don’t expect Young to be a worthy starter for fantasy teams.
12) Jay Cutler - All Cutler did last year was throw for nine touchdowns in five games. It wasn’t just the numbers, but the poise he showed. His long bomb touchdown to Javon Walker against Arizona might have been the most impressive pass any quarterback had all season. Does that mean he is destined for a 3,500 yard and 25 touchdown season? Normally, I’d say no, but there’s just something about the kid. My gut tells me he’s got a chance.
13) Brett Favre - I just don’t think there’s much to say about Favre. He hasn’t retired and he still has Donald Driver to throw to. Greg Jennings came in as a rookie in 2006 and had an impressive campaign. If he evolves into a consistent threat, it could mean Favre would be worth starting again. It will also be interesting to see how rookie running back Brandon Jackson takes the pressure off of Favre and how he handles the receiving aspect of the position. Favre makes a solid backup. Think 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns.
14) Ben Roethlisberger - Full confession time. I entered this season with Vick, Romo, and Roethlisberger as the quarterbacks on my dynasty team. Needless to say, I’ve had a rough August from that perspective. So the natural question I’ve been asking myself is whether I feel comfortable going into the season with Roethlisberger having to play a big role for me. First, the bad news. The Steelers quarterback threw 23 interceptions, a total higher than his 2004 and 2005 interception totals combined. Now, the excuse. The dude nearly died twice last year. That has to count for something. So here’s the good news. After week five, Roethlisberger only had one game without a touchdown. On top of that, his yardage numbers were far and away the best of his career. 3,500 and 20 touchdowns sounds reasonable, but his ceiling puts him in the top 10.
15) Matt Hasselbeck - We’re sorry for those in the Seattle area, but the prospects for the Seahawks this season aren’t good. In fact, I would put every offensive player on the team other than DJ Hackett as a bust candidate. And that includes Hasselbeck, who had a woefully inconsistent 2006 season. Now, without his best wideout, Hasselbeck is supposed to improve his play. We don’t see that happening. With so many better options at the same value, we advise passing on this passer.
16) Alex Smith - Being a first year full-time starter without much talent in the receiving positions can be a tough life. Frank Gore proved to be an extremely useful commodity for Smith, but highly hyped Vernon Davis battled injuries and Antonio Bryant sputtered after two strong games to start the season. Darrell Jackson, when healthy, will help stabilize Smith. He was a nice pickup. Davis, meanwhile, just needs playing time to prove his worth. If Gore doesn’t regress, there’s no reason to believe Smith won’t push his numbers to 3,000 yards and over 20 touchdowns.
17) Eli Manning - Who the hell turns down San Diego? The weather alone makes it one of the best places to play. Throw in one of the best running backs in NFL history and a tight end that could outjump Dwight Howard, and even I could be the quarterback for the Chargers. Eli’s (or, let’s be honest, Archie’s) decision should go down as one of the worst professional choices any NFL player has ever made. I don’t even want to talk about this year. It’s like passing on the chance to play with Jordan. It’s like passing on playing in the same jazz band as Brad Mehldau. You just don’t do it.
18) Jake Delhomme - We have arrived at the point of the rankings where players are here because some experts will put them as high as 10, but there’s no way they will end up on our teams. Derek and I have never been the biggest Delhomme fans, and it’s become clear the Panthers quarterback will never again be a starting fantasy quarterback. More than half of his starts last season ended with fewer than 200 yards passing. This is despite having arguably the most dangerous wide out in the league at his disposal. The Panthers brought in David Carr, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see Delhomme on the bench sooner rather than later this season.
19) JP Losman - Losman is getting mixed reviews in fantasy publications this preseason. Derek has a long standing, nonsensical hatred of the guy, but I remain mostly apathetic. Lee Evans is a fine top wide out. He proved last year that even with getting all of the attention, he can blow past coverages. The problem for Losman is that there’s no one else to go to. Rookie running back MarShawn Lynch should be a better receiver than Willis McGahee, but that can only go so far. A second wide out or a top tight end would get my enthusiastic about having Losman as a backup, but, as it stands now, he’s a bottom of the road insurance policy.
20) Rex Grossman - Are you feeling lucky? There were only three games last season where Grossman didn’t throw for at least two touchdowns or at least two interceptions. The problem is, he did the former seven times and the latter six times. In a way, this is the perfect backup player if you take Palmer or Manning. You know you’ll need him one time, and there’s a 50% chance he’ll give you two or more touchdowns that week. What other player taken in round eight can you say that about? Just, don’t dare start him twice or you’ll have to deal with the wrath.
21) Steve McNair - The good news is that the offense in Baltimore is looking pretty good. Willis McGahee will be by default much more useful out of the backfield than Jamal Lewis was. Mark Clayton is entering his third year, which should benefit McNair. And, as always, Todd Heap is one of the top safety valves in the league. The bad news is that the Ravens would much rather run the ball than throw too much. And the McGahee signing didn’t change that. In deeper leagues, McNair will be a weak backup.
22) Jason Campbell - His knee scare earlier this preseason didn’t help Campbell’s value, which was already as nothing more than a late round flier. If you have lots of roster space, took a top quarterback and a decent backup, then Campbell at least has some upward mobility. There’s just not a lot of excitement here.
23) Chad Pennington - Pardon me while I yawn. Jerricho Cotchery and Laverneous Coles are a decent combination, but Pennington doesn’t look downfield all that much and the Jets offense can be described by whatever word is one step above comatose. I’d personally rather have Tavaris Jackson.
24) Byron Leftwich - Anyone can find something negative to say about Leftwich. It takes a true pro to make it seem as though he won’t be a complete disaster. Okay. Here it goes. Leftwich has the best rapport with the best receiver on the team, Reggie Williams. With Lord Byron at quarterback, Williams looked like, well, almost a real wide out. He scored four times in the first six games. Then, David Garrard decided that, umm, no one would be his main target. It all worked out pretty poorly. Here’s my point. Leftwich and Williams can form a powerful duo which would make both fantasy factors. Woo! I did it!
25) Matt Schaub - A lot of expectations are being placed on Schaub, who has started a total of two games in his NFL career. But there are two things worth mentioning. The first is Andre Johnson, who is easily a top 10 wide out talent. If Schaub can develop a rapport with the former Hurricane, then maybe everything will be okay. The other point of interest is Ahman Green. Houston has long used (and needed) their running backs in the receiving game. Green knows a thing or two about that aspect of the game, as he has surpassed 50 receptions three times in his career. Now, if Schaub is okay with being sacked 150 times, everything should work out.
Proclamations of Donovan McNabb’s demise have been greatly exaggerated…as long as he plays against the Lions for the remainder of the season. McNabb slaughtered a Lions defense that showed glimpses of promise through the first couple of seasons.
